Champion-Challenger Mindset, Raffle Dilemma, and more.

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Champion-Challenger Strategy

Last week, I met with AI engineers at Google to discuss use cases for Google's Vertex AI tool.

I learned there are dozens of ways to build and scale machine learning models, but one concept stood out to me the most.

Imagine you're trying to improve your lifestyle. You want to build better habits, develop new skills, and get smarter.

Everyone says to “get 1% better every day.”

(I'm guilty of saying this all the time…)

But how do you know what 1% looks like?

It's simple with money: if you made $100 yesterday, you strive to make $101 today.

With personal growth, it's much more challenging to determine what growth looks like.

How do you know if you got 1% better? You may have improved by 2%. Or maybe it was only .5%.

Growth requires comparison to a baseline.

Looking back at AI—at an extremely high level, machine learning models are created using past data to predict future data.

But what happens when new data is introduced?

What if we try to predict weather patterns in 2023 but rely on data from only 2018 and earlier?

The model's accuracy would be poor, and the performance would drop.

As new data is added, we need to update the model accordingly.

One method for updating and improving is called the Champion-Challenger Strategy.

The main idea behind this strategy is comparisons.

You have an existing working model (champion) and want to compare it with a new model (challenger).

Compare your old machine learning models with the current model, and see which one performs better. If the old model is still better, keep it.

However, if the new model outperforms the old one, throw away the old model and replace it with the new one.

This same idea applies to self-improvement.

Growth comes from comparing the current version of yourself to a past version.

Make a change and see if you've improved.

Maybe you implemented a new note-taking system and want to see how efficiently you absorb a book.

Or maybe you're testing out new Twitter formats to see which gets more engagement.

Every time you progress forward, save and record the “updated state.”

Anytime you make a change and see worse results, throw it away.

“Growth” is different for everyone, so it's hard for me to tell you how to quantify it.

But you'll know you're growing when you start to feel accomplished after working towards something, whether writing a newsletter article or making your first dollar online.

This is one of the ways I started viewing my growth. My journey is a system of experiments and determining what trials worked best.

If you struggle to improve, try the Champion-Challenger mindset and start comparing your current self to your past versions.

Raffle Dilemma

I enter the 2023 HGTV Dream Home sweepstakes every day because who doesn't want a free mountain house in Colorado?

By entering every day, I have better odds than someone who doesn't enter every day.

However, with the millions of daily entries, my odds of winning are incredibly slim. Yet, I still have the best odds because I enter the contest every single day.

I coined this concept the Raffle Dilemma.

I simultaneously have the best odds and extremely poor odds at the same time.

This idea applies to the game of life.

Remember that when you show up every day—even if the odds are against you—you still have the best opportunity to win.

Increase your luck surface by entering the raffle as many times as possible.

Make your own luck.

Quote of the week

TL;DR

• Use the Champion-Challenger mindset to find the best version of yourself

• Follow the Raffle Dilemma and make your own luck

Thanks for reading!

If you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter @sam_starkman, or feel free to reply to this email!

— Sam