♟️ The Metagame #025: Can You Trust Your Intuition?

If you haven’t noticed, I love thought experiments. They’re one of my favorite conversation topics and a great way to make yourself think a little deeper.

So for today, here’s another one for you: The Birthday Paradox.

This is what’s in store for today:

1. What the Birthday Paradox reveals about intuition

2. Why “gut feelings” can’t always be trusted

3. A reminder to question everything in the age of AI

Understanding the Birthday Paradox

Imagine you’re at a party with 22 other people (so 23 including yourself). What are the odds at least 2 people share the same birthday?

Your intuition might say it’s pretty slim, right? There are 365 days in a year after all, and only 23 people in the room.

But the actual answer is pretty mind-boggling: It’s about a 50% chance two people share a birthday.

And it gets even more surprising—if you increase the group size to 75 people, the probability is almost a near certainty, with a 99.9% chance of a shared birthday.

How is this possible? At first glance, it feels counterintuitive, but here’s a quick breakdown of the math behind it (for those of you who are curious):

Instead of calculating the chance of at least one shared birthday directly, we do the opposite: We calculate the probability that no one shares a birthday—and then subtract that from 1.

1. Start with the first person: They can have their birthday on any of the 365 days of the year. The probability of this is 365/365 (100%).

2. Add the second person: For there to be no overlap, the second person’s birthday must be on one of the remaining 364 days. The probability is 364/365 (~99.7%).

3. Add the third person: Their birthday must not match the first two, so there are 363 possible days left. The probability is 363/365 (~99.5%).

This pattern continues as more people are added:

• For the fourth person, it’s 362/365 (~99.2%).

• For the fifth, it’s 361/365 (~98.9%), and so on.

To find the probability that no one shares a birthday, you multiply all these probabilities together:

When you crunch the numbers, by the time you have 23 people in the room, the probability of no shared birthdays drops to about 49.3%. That means the probability of at least one shared birthday is:

1 − 0.493 = 0.507, or a 50.7% chance of a shared birthday.

Crazy, right?

This is a perfect example of how human intuition struggles with probabilities. We’re wired to think in linear, straightforward ways, so counterintuitive truths—like the odds of a shared birthday—often slip past our mental radar.

What’s the takeaway here? Just because something feels right, doesn’t mean it is.

The Limits of Intuition

The Birthday Paradox highlights a fundamental flaw in how we process information. Our brains evolved to make quick decisions based on patterns and heuristics (mental shortcuts). While this served us well in dodging predators and gathering food, it’s not always reliable in a complex, data-driven world.

Here are some other ways our intuition can trip us up:

• Availability Bias: When we overestimate the likelihood of something happening if it’s easy to recall and remember. (Example: after seeing a news story about a plane crash, you might feel like flying is less safe—even though it’s statistically the safest form of travel).

• Confirmation Bias: When we seek out information that supports what we already believe, ignoring evidence to the contrary. (I am guilty of this.)

• Overconfidence: When we think we know more than we actually do. (Also guilty.)

Understanding these biases doesn’t mean we should abandon intuition entirely—it’s still a valuable tool. But it does mean we should pair our gut feelings with a healthy dose of skepticism and critical thinking.

Not Everything Is As It Seems

Speaking of skepticism, let’s talk about the age of AI.

Right now, we’re living in an era where more and more online content is being created with the help of artificial intelligence—everything from articles and images to videos and music. At first glance, this might seem like a good thing. AI can generate content faster and more efficiently than humans, so why not embrace the convenience?

But here’s the catch: Not everything you see online is real.

In fact, we’re likely nearing a tipping point where the amount of AI content overtakes the amount of human-made content.

Growing up, we were taught not to believe everything we see on the internet. But the line between truth and fabrication is getting blurrier every day.

This isn’t about being paranoid—it’s about being aware.

So, What Can You Do?

In a world where appearances can be deceiving, here are a few rules to live by:

• Question everything: Don’t take things at face value, whether it’s a news article, a social media post, or even a photo. Ask yourself, “Who created this? What’s their intent? Is this credible?”

• Verify before sharing: It’s easy to hit “share” or “retweet” without thinking, but spreading misinformation—whether intentional or not—only makes the problem worse.

• Stay curious: The more you learn about biases, probabilities, and how technology works, the harder it will be for anyone (or anything) to fool you.

I know this all sounds a little cynical, but skepticism isn’t about mistrusting everything—it’s about protecting yourself from being misled.

So, the next time something feels intuitively “right,” take a step back and think about it. Whether it’s a birthday coincidence or a headline that seems too good (or bad) to be true, remember: your intuition is a starting point, not the final answer.

As always, if you have any comments, questions, concerns, compliments, or criticisms, just shoot me a reply. I’ve been getting a ton of positive feedback recently, and would love to rabbit hole down a topic you’re interested in.

Quote of the week

Thanks for reading!

If you have any questions, hit me up on LinkedIn or on 𝕏 at @sam_starkman, or feel free to reply to this email!

— Sam