♟️ The Metagame #048: Assume Everyone Is Dangerous

Welcome back to The Metagame.

Here's what I have for you today:

• What Krav Maga taught me about anticipation

• How second-order thinking can change your life

Read time: 3 minutes

In Krav Maga, you train for the worst-case scenario.

Multiple attackers. Weapons you didn't see coming. Fights that don't stop when you want them to.

One of the first things you learn is situational awareness. When you walk into a room, you scan for exits. When someone approaches you, you watch their hands. When a conversation gets tense, you're already thinking about what happens if it escalates.

You assume everyone is a threat until proven otherwise.

That guy walking too close behind you? You're aware of him. The person reaching into their jacket a little too quickly? You're watching. The group of people blocking the sidewalk ahead? You're already planning an alternate route.

It sounds extreme. Maybe even paranoid.

But you're prepared.

You're never caught off guard because you've already thought through what could go wrong—and what you'd do about it.

This mindset has tradeoffs.

You're prepared. You've already mapped the terrain before anything happens. You're calm when others panic because you saw it coming.

But you're never fully at ease. There's a constant hum in the background, running through scenarios, anticipating what could go wrong.

The thing is, this mindset doesn't stay on the mats. It bleeds into the rest of your life.

When I'm negotiating a deal, I'm thinking about what happens if they say no. When I'm launching a project, I'm thinking about what breaks first. When I'm having a conversation, I'm thinking about how my words might land wrong.

Surprises still happen. But if you're expecting things to go wrong (and they always do), you're at least ready for it.

Poker Lines

Something I've talked about before is the concept of "lines" in poker.

A line is the path a situation can take. If I raise, my opponent can re-raise, fold, call, or go all-in. Each of those responses leads to a new set of possibilities.

It takes practice, but being able to quickly predict what they'll do—and how you'll respond—helps you make the best decision in the moment.

In poker (and chess), this is called thinking in lines. Everywhere else, it's called second-order thinking.

First-order thinking asks: "What happens if I do this?"

Second-order thinking keeps going: "What happens next? And then what? And then what after that?"

If I raise and they re-raise, do I fold or push all-in? If I push all-in and they call, what does that tell me about their hand? If they fold, did I extract enough value?

The more you practice thinking in lines, the faster you get at it. You start seeing three, four, five moves ahead before your opponent even acts.

If This, Then That

Second-order thinking is also the foundation of programming.

Every piece of code is built on conditionals.

if (userClicksButton) {

  doThisThing();

} else {

  doSomethingElse();

}

What happens if the user clicks this button? What if they don't? What if they click it twice? What if they click it while the page is still loading?

The developers who think through every possible path before writing code create software that handles the unexpected. The ones who don't are constantly putting out fires.

The same applies to life.

Think one step ahead, and you're constantly blindsided, scrambling to respond to situations you should have seen coming.

Think two, three, four steps ahead, and you've already run the simulation. You've already prepared your response.

How to Train This

The good news is that second-order thinking is a skill. And like any skill, it gets better with practice.

Start small. Before making a decision, ask yourself:

• If I do this, what are the possible responses?

• For each response, what would I do next?

• What's the worst-case scenario? Am I prepared for it?

At first, it feels slow and clunky. You're consciously running through scenarios step by step.

But over time, it becomes automatic. You start seeing the lines before you even realize you're looking for them.

And when something does go wrong (because it will), you're not scrambling.

You're ready.

Thanks for reading!

If you have any questions, hit me up on LinkedIn or on Twitter/𝕏 at @sam_starkman, or feel free to reply to this email!

— Sam